- China’s policy shift threatens to raise solar costs in Nigeria, as the removal of export rebates increases equipment prices and import expenses.
- Experts urge Nigeria to accelerate local manufacturing and diversify supply, turning the development into a strategic opportunity rather than a setback.
China has announced plans to cancel tax rebates on solar panel exports and reduce incentives for battery storage equipment. Due ro this, analysts expect solar installation costs in Nigeria to rise. The country relies heavily on imported Chinese technology to expand renewable energy and electrify underserved communities.
China’s Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration confirmed that it will cancel value-added tax export rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026. It will also cut rebates on battery products from 9% to 6% within 2026 and remove them completely by January 1, 2027.
The China Photovoltaic Industry Association said the policy will stabilise global prices and reduce excessive competition. It noted that some exporters used rebates as indirect discounts for foreign buyers.
However, analysts expect prices to rise gradually as subsidies disappear. This trend could increase solar adoption costs in Nigeria, especially as unreliable grid power drives demand for alternative energy sources. Higher shipping, logistics, and import costs may worsen the impact.
Adetayo Adegbemile, Executive Director of Power-Up, said China designed the policy to protect its domestic industry and strengthen its global position. He urged Nigeria to review its policies to support local solar manufacturing and ensure competitiveness.
Kunle Stevenson, an energy expert, described the development as a major supply-chain shift. He estimated that solar and battery costs in Nigeria could rise by 5–15% or more. Therefore, he called for urgent investment in local assembly, manufacturing, and supply diversification.
He added that solar energy remains cheaper than diesel in many cases. However, he called for a balanced energy mix that combines renewables with Nigeria’s abundant gas resources to ensure reliable baseload power.
Chinedu Bosah, National Coordinator of the Coalition for Affordable and Regular Electricity (CARE), said rising costs could make solar systems less affordable. He noted that a 5KVA system already costs between ₦4 million and ₦4.5 million, which many Nigerians cannot afford.
In addition, he highlighted the country’s fragile power supply. He said recent generation dropped to about 2,900MW, forcing widespread load shedding and blackouts. This situation has disrupted production, services, and livelihoods across the country.
Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), warned against banning solar panel imports. He said Nigeria’s low electricity access and per capita consumption make solar adoption critical for improving energy security. He added that restricting imports would worsen energy poverty.
Overall, China’s policy shift serves as a wake-up call. Nigeria must move from relying on imported green technology to building its own manufacturing capacity and strengthening energy resilience.