- World Bank calls for reopening fuel imports sparks policy clash in Nigeria, as marketers push for deregulation.
- Debate intensifies over pricing, competition, and energy security, amid rising fuel costs, geopolitical shocks, and Nigeria’s shift toward domestic refining.
The World Bank calls for Nigeria to reopen and reinstate fuel imports, and this move immediately divides industry stakeholders. Marketers support full deregulation, while energy experts caution that the policy could undermine domestic refining capacity and weaken energy security.
The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria insists that restricting imports contradicts the Petroleum Industry Act. The association argues that a truly liberalised market must allow both local and international players to compete freely. It also maintains that limiting import licences reduces competition and restricts market efficiency.
However, energy experts take a more cautious position. They question the basis of the World Bank’s recommendation and urge the government to prioritise energy security. They also recommend greater transparency in refining costs and pricing to build public trust while maintaining a balanced market structure.
The debate stems from the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update titled “Nigeria’s Tomorrow Must Start Today – The Case for Early Childhood Development.” The report recommends reopening the Premium Motor Spirit market to imports. It argues that suspending import licences since January 2026 has reduced competition and pushed prices above import-parity levels. It also claims imported petrol is about 12% cheaper than locally supplied fuel.
In addition, the report further states that reopening imports would restore competition, reduce pricing distortions, and strengthen supply security by reducing dependence on a single refinery.
The National Publicity Secretary of IPMAN, Chinedu Ukadike, strongly supports reopening imports. He argues that deregulation requires open competition and that restricting imports undermines the Petroleum Industry Act. He also warns that limiting licences shrinks the market and weakens price discovery.
On the other hand, energy expert Kelvin Emmanuel rejects the World Bank’s recommendation. He argues that import economics and product specifications make cheaper landing costs unrealistic under current conditions. Furthermore, he states that Nigeria’s growing refining capacity has disrupted global fuel flows and strengthened local supply security.
He links rising domestic costs to global crude price premiums and structural inefficiencies in crude supply. According to him, Nigeria must accept full deregulation, including price volatility tied to global markets and exchange rates.
Professor Emeritus of Petroleum Economics, Wumi Iledare, calls for a balanced approach. He acknowledges that imports could stabilise supply in the short term but warns against long-term reliance. He argues that Nigeria must protect emerging refining capacity while maintaining competitive pricing and transparency.
Similarly, Dayo Ayoade questions the World Bank’s assumptions. He urges regulators to verify pricing data and defend domestic refining capacity, which he says supports energy security during global disruptions.
Energy analyst Jeremiah Olatide also calls for transparency in local refining costs. He notes that while import landing costs are clear, domestic refining margins remain opaque. He argues that stronger transparency and competition will help stabilise pump prices.
Nigeria currently sources about 92% of its petrol from domestic refineries, according to regulatory data, following the suspension of import licences in 2026. However, rising global oil prices and geopolitical tensions continue to push up local fuel costs, increasing pressure on households and businesses.
The World Bank maintains that Nigeria should avoid subsidy reinstatement and instead use targeted cash transfers to support vulnerable citizens. It also warns that higher oil prices could worsen inflation and strain macroeconomic stability.
The debate highlights a core policy dilemma. Nigeria must balance open-market competition with the protection of domestic refining investments while navigating global energy volatility and rising domestic fuel costs.