There has been much discussion about Africa’s ability to ‘leapfrog’ the way power systems have been built in the western world. Traditional power systems have been based on centralised power generation for over a century. The limited number of large thermal power plants provide baseload electricity through a massive transmission network. However, this way of generating power is ending: the climate emergency calls for a 180-degree paradigm shift in which renewables replace thermal power plants as the baseload energy source.
In many ways, this new power generation paradigm is a perfect fit for Africa. The continent enjoys some of the highest wind and solar energy resources on the planet, which means that the renewable energy plants built here boast some of the best productivity rates in the world. Almost anywhere in Africa, renewables are the cheapest power generation option available today by a significant margin.
Although most governments across the continent have set relatively ambitious renewable energy targets, there is still widespread scepticism that renewable energy, which is intermittent by nature, can provide a reliable source of baseload power. This scepticism is unjustified. With the appropriate deployment of grid balancing technologies like gas engine power plants or energy storage, vast amounts of renewable energy can be built into the system while at the same time ensuring a stable and reliable network. Energy experts at Wärtsilä, who have built 76 GW of power plant capacity in 180 countries worldwide, know a thing or two about that.
Building reliable power systems
Yes, renewables are intermittent, but it’s a challenge that we have long known how to solve, providing the need for flexible power capacity is not underestimated.
As intermittent renewable energy becomes the new baseload, the system must cope with a large amount of variable power that can disrupt the grid. Flexible power must therefore be available to ramp up production at the same rate that wind or solar production fluctuates but also to match the fluctuating energy demand within the day. System imbalances can sometimes be huge, but the system will stay safe if renewable energy deployment is compared with corresponding levels of flexible power capacity.
Flexible engine power plants are the only technology designed to work hand-in-hand with renewables, as they can efficiently cope with multiple daily starts and stops. They also offer the significant advantage of running on different fuels, from natural gas and heavy fuel oil today to locally produced hydrogen and biofuels tomorrow, as they become competitive and broadly available. Thanks to this muti-fuel capability, engine power plants provide a great hedge against fuel supply risk. They are the ultimate “future-proof” technology for energy leapfrogging, as the gas engines can be converted to run on green fuels like hydrogen to reach 100% renewables. Engine power plants offer a solid, long-term foundation on which African countries can build modern and resilient clean power systems.
Energy leapfrogging requires a tailormade approach.
Delivering on energy leapfrogging is going to be a complex, multi-decade process. Each African country has its unique natural resource mix, geographical opportunities and constraints, population density, and many other parameters. Each country will therefore require its own tailormade and optimal power system expansion plan to accomplish its leapfrogging.
What would such a plan look like in practice? Let’s take Nigeria as an example. Using advanced energy system modelling techniques, Wärtsilä’s analysts have designed a detailed roadmap showing how Nigeria could proceed to build a 100% renewable energy power system and meet its 2060 net-zero targets.
According to our models, by 2060, Nigeria’s power capacity should consist of 1,200 GW of renewable energy and require 283 GW of energy storage and 34 GW of flexible engine power plants for grid balancing purposes. On the other hand, inflexible sources of power like coal, oil or gas turbine power plants have now become the exception rather than the norm.
Nigeria’s domestic gas must still play a crucial transition role for this plan to succeed: It will be mobilised as an inexpensive bridging fuel for engine power plants in support of intermittent renewable energy generation until these plants can be converted to run purely on green hydrogen in the early 2040s.
This is the soundest power system from both an environmental and economic standpoint. Our research shows that investing in renewable energy and flexibility from gas engines and energy storage is the most cost-effective way for Nigeria to reduce energy costs, increase energy access and improve grid reliability. For the plan to succeed, however, the country must significantly enhance its power transmission infrastructure, develop a strong and dependable policy framework, and attract significant investment.
The global shift to renewable energy provides Nigeria and Africa, as a whole, with a unique opportunity to leapfrog the carbon-based power systems that have been the norm in the West. Delivering this opportunity would represent a giant step forward in the country’s development. But an adequate and carefully planned deployment of flexible power technologies to balance the intermittency of renewables is the sine qua non-condition for energy leapfrogging to succeed in Nigeria, as anywhere else on the continent.
Author:
Marc Thiriet, born in 1967, graduated from ESTA Belfort and IFCI-ESC Clermont (Graduate School of Management), has more than 25 years of experience in business development and management positions in the energy sector in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, South America and Europe. Marc Thiriet has held leading positions in Sales and contract negotiations (EPC, O&M) and has managed various P&L overseas with multicultural teams, developing and delivering Services. At Wärtsilä, Marc Thiriet has been Managing Director in Senegal, Service Unit Director for West Africa, and Business Support Director for the Middle East & Asia. Currently, he holds the position of Director of Africa at Wärtsilä Energy.