- According to Ember, Mexico could save $1.6 billion annually by cutting U.S. gas imports if it achieves 45% clean electricity by 2030.
- Meeting the target requires 36 GW of solar and 10 GW of wind, creating over 430,000 jobs.
- Clean energy would boost energy security and protect Mexico from global gas price shocks.
According to energy think tank Ember, Mexico can cut natural gas imports by 384 billion cubic feet and save $1.6 billion annually by boosting clean electricity to 45% by 2030.
Ember released the report on May 19. It shows that Mexico can reduce gas-fired power generation by 20%, from 204 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024 to 163 TWh in 2030, while electricity demand increases by 15%.
Mexico currently uses natural gas to generate 54% of its electricity. The country imports most of this gas from the United States, making it the top buyer of U.S. gas.
In 2024, renewables supplied only 22% of Mexico’s electricity. This figure falls below the global average of 32% and Latin America’s average of 62%.
“Mexico is exposed,” said Wilmar Suarez, Ember’s lead analyst for Latin America. “The country’s dependence on imported gas threatens energy reliability and affordability.”
Ember compared two clean energy targets in Mexico’s electricity strategy: 36% and 45% by 2030. The report shows that the 45% target offers far greater benefits.
That pathway delivers ten times more fuel savings and nearly twice the number of jobs.
To reach 45% clean electricity, Mexico must install 36 gigawatts (GW) of solar and 10 GW of wind power by 2030. This expansion would create around 419,000 construction jobs and 15,000 permanent roles in operations and maintenance.
Ember urges the government to speed up renewable energy development. The report points to Brazil and Uruguay, which streamlined approval processes to accelerate clean energy growth.
President Claudia Sheinbaum set the 45% clean electricity goal in October 2024. Ember says the government must act quickly to meet this target.
The report warns that U.S. gas dependency leaves Mexico vulnerable to price shocks and supply disruptions. Shifting to domestic renewables would increase stability.
“Clean electricity gives Mexico a shield against global gas price swings,” said Suarez.
Ember also highlights climate benefits. More clean energy would lower emissions and reduce pollution across the power sector.
The country must align policies, mobilise investment, and support workforce training to meet the goal. Ember urges policymakers to clear bottlenecks and encourage private-sector participation.
With the proper steps, Mexico can lower fuel costs, reduce emissions, create jobs, and strengthen energy security.
Ember emphasises that the 45% target remains within reach, but time is running out.
“Mexico must build now to avoid locking in fossil fuel use,” Suarez said. “The clean energy future won’t wait.”