NRGI National Dialogue Communiqué: Exploring Energy Economic Diversification Pathways

COMMUNIQUÉ ISSUED AT THE END OF THE NATIONAL DIALOGUE ON NIGERIA’S ENERGY TRANSITION: EXPLORING ENERGY AND ECONOMIC DIVERSIFICATION PATHWAYS HELD AT THE ABUJA CONTINENTAL HOTEL, ABUJA, ON MONDAY, JULY 6, 2026, IN COMMEMORATION OF THE NATURAL RESOURCE GOVERNANCE INSTITUTE’S 20TH ANNIVERSARY

Background

On July 6, 2026, the National Council on Climate Change (NCCC), the Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI), Nextier, and the Electricity Hub held a ‘National Dialogue on Energy Transition: Exploring Energy and Economic Diversification Pathways’. The organisers reconvened stakeholders four years after an initial National Dialogue on Energy Transition organised by NRGI, Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) and the BudgIT Foundation held in October 2022, shortly after the publication of Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP), setting the citizens’ agenda of the 2023 general elections.

The dialogue brought together representatives from government, the private sector, civil society, academia, development partners, host communities and the media to assess progress since 2022 and identify practical priorities towards a just, inclusive, and economically transformative energy transition, exploring more concretely energy and economic diversification pathways with emphasis on renewable energy and mining contributions to Nigeria’s larger energy and economic future.

Objective

The dialogue provided a multi-stakeholder platform not only to mark NRGI’s 20th anniversary but also to advance an evidence-based agenda-setting to inform the energy transition ahead of the 2027 election cycle. Its purpose was to take an honest stock of the journey so far and to chart a pathway for the next four years based on evidence.

This was achieved by sharing knowledge pieces, collating research and experience gathered since the last dialogue in the form of two reports by NRGI aligned with the dialogue’s theme titled: ‘Nigeria’s Gas to Power Ambitions; Limits, Opportunities and Alternatives’ and ‘Economic Diversification, the Energy Transition and the Minerals Opportunity for Nigeria’. It also generated policy recommendations to inform government action and contribute to the national conversation ahead of the 2027 electoral cycle.

Opening Session

The opening session featured remarks from the co-convening institutions and goodwill messages from senior government officials, development partners and civil society leaders, including Dr. Tenioye Majekodunmi, Director General, National Council on Climate Change; Ibrahima Aidara, Deputy Africa Director, NRGI; Dr. Iniobong Abiola-Awe, Director, Department of Climate Change, Federal Ministry of Environment; and Dr. Mustapha Abdullahi, Director General, Energy Commission of Nigeria. Speakers reaffirmed that Nigeria’s energy transition must remain people-centred, evidence-based and aligned with national development priorities. They emphasised the importance of policy continuity, transparency, institutional collaboration and inclusive stakeholder participation to deliver a successful transition.

The dialogue also marked NRGI’s twentieth anniversary and featured the launch of two flagship reports on Nigeria’s gas-to-power ambitions and opportunities for economic diversification through critical minerals.

Presentation and Panel Discussions

The dialogue featured presentations and panel discussions reviewing Nigeria’s energy transition journey since 2022, covering progress in electricity sector reforms, renewable energy deployment, minerals sector, climate finance and economic diversification. Presentations were delivered by NRGI’s Aaron Sayne and Ahmad Abdsulsamad, with high-level perspectives shared on the two panels led by Tengi George-Ikoli, Nigeria Country Manager, NRGI and Emeka Okpukpara, Managing Partner, Nextier. The panels included Hon. Jonathan Gaza, Chairman, House Committee on Solid Minerals; Ibrahim Shelleng, SA to the President on Climate Finance and Stakeholder Engagement; Michael Ivenso, Director, Transport and Energy, NCCC; Somkele Awa-Kalu, Finance Specialist, Sustainable Energy For All; Gerald Esambe, Regional Principal Climate Change & Green Growth Officer, African Development Bank; Tijani Hamza, Country Director, Oxfam Nigeria; Waziri Adio, Executive Director, Agora Policy; Frank Edozie, Energy Consultant; Chijioke Okonkwo, Chairman, Enugu State Electricity Regulatory Commission; and Victoria Ibezim-Ohaeri, Executive Director, Spaces for Change. The final panel, moderated by Enebi Opaluwa of the BudgIT Foundation, included perspectives from Mr. Edu Okeke, Managing Director, Azura Power; Dr. Louis Brown Ogbeifun, AfriTAL; Mr. Tijah Bolton-Akpan, Policy Alert; and Goyega Olorunfemi, the Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP).

To celebrate NRGI’s 20th Anniversary, Toyin Akinniyi, Luminate and NRGI’s trusted partners, Oluseun Onigbide, Executive Director, BudgIT Foundation; Akintunde Babatunde, Executive Director, Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development; Olusegun Elemo, Executive Director, Paradigm Leadership Support Initiative; Faith Nwadishi, Executive Director, Women in Extractives/Centre for Transparency and Advocacy (CTA), shared insights from NRGI’s 20 years of influence in the natural resource governance ecosystem.

Participants explored pathways to expand energy access, the complementary roles of renewable energy and natural gas, opportunities presented by critical minerals, financing the transition, strengthening governance, and promoting structural economic transformation capable of supporting sustainable and inclusive development.

Key Issues from the Deliberations

Following extensive deliberations, participants identified the following key issues:

1. The energy transition must remain an implementable national development priority, with progress transparent, measurable, and monitorable. Participants reaffirmed that Nigeria’s energy transition is fundamentally a development agenda, with some progress through its just transition guideline, greater stakeholder inclusion, renewable energy expansion plans, the deregulation of the power sector, and increased mobilisation of critical climate finance. Its success should be measured by expanded energy access, industrial growth, job creation, economic resilience and improved living standards alongside emissions reduction. The transition should mainstream minerals, increase domestic value addition and productivity across sectors.
2. Universal energy access and state-level leadership remain Nigeria’s foremost priority. Participants agreed that expanding access to affordable, reliable, and sustainable electricity and clean cooking should remain the central objective of Nigeria’s transition strategy. They also emphasised that state governments will play a critical role in achieving this goal by leveraging electricity sector reforms to develop bankable renewable energy projects, strengthen climate finance readiness, attract investment, expand decentralised energy systems, and align state policies with national priorities.
3. Renewable energy offers the fastest pathway to expanding electricity access. Evidence presented during the dialogue showed that output from gas power plants peaked a decade ago and that Nigeria will likely struggle to increase electricity supply significantly with gas. Therefore, distributed renewable energy, particularly solar technologies, currently offers Nigeria the fastest and most cost-effective means of expanding electricity access. While Nigerian power plants and industry will need to keep consuming gas for some time, renewable energy technologies have demonstrated stronger investment, innovation and deployment. Participants therefore called for balanced planning that recognises the complementary roles of gas and renewable energy while prioritising investments capable of delivering affordable renewable electricity at scale.
4. Structural economic transformation should drive diversification. Participants agreed that Nigeria’s long-term prosperity depends on improving productivity, strengthening manufacturing, promoting domestic value addition and expanding productive sectors of the economy. Reliable electricity remains fundamental to achieving these objectives.
5. Governance and institutional reform should prioritise policy consistency, coordination and implementation. Policy consistency, coordination, and implementation are critical. Participants agreed that effective implementation of existing policies is now more important than developing new strategies. They called for stronger coordination across ministries, departments, and agencies, greater regulatory certainty, transparent investment frameworks, and improved monitoring and evaluation systems to accelerate implementation, attract investment, and track progress against national targets and international commitments.
6. Mobilising transition finance must become a national priority. Participants emphasised the need to improve project preparation, strengthen the bankability of climate and energy investments, reduce investment risks, and mobilise greater domestic and international finance through blended finance, guarantees, and other innovative financing mechanisms. They stressed that greater policy certainty, transparent regulation, and stronger investment governance are essential to attract the private capital required for the energy transition.
7. Critical minerals present an opportunity, not a substitute for oil. Participants agreed that Nigeria’s mineral resources can support long-term economic diversification and participation in global clean energy value chains. Still, they should not be viewed as an immediate replacement for oil revenues. Realising this opportunity requires stronger governance, improved geological information, regulatory certainty, strategic infrastructure investment, responsible environmental management, and greater domestic value addition.
8. A just transition requires transparency, accountability, and inclusion. Participants stressed that host communities must remain at the centre of Nigeria’s energy transition through meaningful participation, environmental accountability, and equitable access to emerging economic opportunities. Citing the methane leak in Bille Community as a reminder of the human cost of weak environmental governance, they emphasised that workers, women, and young people should benefit from skills development, quality jobs, environmental restoration, and improved livelihoods to ensure no community is left behind.
9. Human capital, innovation and industrial development must drive a just transition. Nigeria’s energy transition must be anchored in local content, skills development, and industrial growth. Participants emphasised the need to invest in technical and vocational education, research, innovation, and technology transfer while strengthening domestic manufacturing and local supply chains. They agreed that building local capacity and increasing Nigerian participation across renewable energy and critical minerals value chains will create quality jobs, deepen industrialisation, and ensure more of the transition’s economic value is retained within the country.

Consensus Recommendations:

At the conclusion of the dialogue, participants agreed that the following should shape Nigeria’s 2027 political agenda:

1. The Federal Ministry of Budget and National Planning, the National Council on Climate Change, and the Energy Transition Office should accelerate the implementation of the Energy Transition Plan through stronger coordination and measurable outcomes, toward tracking progress against national development objectives and the Sustainable Development Goals.
2. The Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources, the Federal Ministry of Power, and the Federal Ministry of Budget and National Planning should conduct energy planning that positions renewable energy, particularly small-scale solar, as a major driver of electricity supply, while defining a more realistic role of gas in the years to come.
3. The Federal Government’s economic diversification policy should prioritise structural transformation by improving productivity, strengthening manufacturing, expanding domestic value addition, and developing competitive industries capable of generating sustainable employment, if non-oil sectors, including minerals, are to thrive.
4. The National Council on Climate Change should strengthen coordination across ministries, departments, and agencies, promote policy consistency, and ensure sustained implementation of reforms that provide certainty for investors and accelerate the delivery of the energy transition and national development objectives.
5. The Federal Ministry of Finance should accelerate the mobilisation of domestic and international finance by improving project preparation, strengthening the bankability of climate and energy investments, reducing investment risks and expanding innovative financing mechanisms.
6. The Federal Ministry of Solid Minerals and Energy Transition Office should integrate critical minerals more strategically into Nigeria’s energy transition agenda by mainstreaming it into the ETP, modernising mining legislation, strengthening governance, improving geological information systems, promoting responsible investment, encouraging domestic value addition and ensuring robust environmental and social safeguards to unlock responsible investments.
7. The Presidency and the Federal Ministry of Budget and National Planning should avoid mistakes from the decades of oil exploration and promote domestic mineral processing, beneficiation, manufacturing, and local content development rather than relying on exporting raw materials.
8. The Federal Government should empower and collaborate with state governments to lead the implementation of the energy transition through climate finance readiness, electricity market reforms, and the deployment of decentralised renewable energy.
9. The Federal Government should ensure that transparency, accountability, public participation and effective monitoring are mainstreamed across the implementation of Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan to strengthen public confidence and improve delivery.
10. The Federal Government and the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board should promote local content, technology transfer, innovation, and workforce development to maximise the economic opportunities created by the energy transition and green industries and strengthen Nigeria’s industrial competitiveness.
11. Host communities and labour groups should remain active partners in the transition process through meaningful participation, environmental remediation, sustainable livelihood opportunities, equitable sharing of the benefits arising from energy transition investments and implementation of the just transition guidelines.
12. All stakeholders are required to foster sustained collaboration among government, development partners, civil society, academia, financial institutions, and the private sector to sustain momentum and ensure coordinated implementation.

Issued by:

Natural Resource Governance Institute (NRGI), the National Council on Climate Change (NCCC), Nextier, The Electricity Hub, the Department of Climate Change (DCC) of the Federal Ministry of Environment, the Energy Commission of Nigeria (ECN), Azura Power, the African Development Bank (AfDB), Agora Policy, Oxfam, the House of Representatives Committee on Solid Minerals Development, the Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI), SustyVibes, BudgIT, Spaces for Change (S4C), the Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID), the Centre for Transparency and Advocacy (CTA), the Paradigm Leadership Support Initiative (PLSI), the Federal Ministry of Petroleum Resources (FMoPR), the Global Energy Alliance for People and Planet (GEAPP), Publish What You Pay Nigeria/Resource Justice Network (PWYP/RJN), representatives of Lasukugbene Community, the African Policy Research Institute (APRI), the Umaru Musa Yar’Adua Foundation, Policy Alert, Women in Extractives, the Society for Planet and Prosperity (SPP), Women in Mining Nigeria, Luminate, the Clean Technology Hub, AfriTAL, and Dataphyte.