- OPEC+ has kept December oil production targets unchanged as the Iran war continues to disrupt Gulf exports.
- The group will meet on November 29 to consider 2027 quotas, following a production capacity review expected by mid-November
OPEC+ members have kept their December oil production targets unchanged. The group is expected to make its next major policy decision in November, ahead of setting 2027 quotas.
Seven core members agreed to maintain the targets during an online meeting on Sunday, according to OPEC. They include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman.
The decision comes as the Iran war continues to disrupt exports from the Gulf. Although some Gulf producers have increased exports, most still pump below their targets.
OPEC+ combines the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with allies, including Russia. The seven countries have led monthly production decisions in recent years.
The United Arab Emirates also participated in those decisions until it left OPEC in May.
All 21 OPEC+ members will meet on November 29. Analysts expect the meeting to determine the group’s production quotas for 2027.
Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, described Sunday’s decision as straightforward. He said the November ministerial meeting would present a more significant test.
“Today’s decision was the easy one,” Leon said. “The much more important test comes at the November 29 ministerial meeting, when OPEC+ will decide its 2027 production framework.”
Oil Market Faces Uncertainty Over 2027 Supply
Oil prices rose more than 2 per cent on Friday. Brent crude settled near $118 a barrel, its highest level since April.
Traders anticipated a possible escalation in the Iran war after the US midterm elections.
However, the International Energy Agency and other forecasters have warned that oil supply could exceed demand in 2027. That risk could increase if Gulf exports return to normal levels.
Leon said OPEC+ faces a difficult decision over its 2027 production plans. He identified uncertainty around the US-Iran war and the recovery of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The group must also consider how much surplus oil could enter the market when disrupted supplies return.
OPEC+ Reviews Production Capacity Before Setting New Quotas
The seven core members increased their production targets through much of 2026. In September, they completed the phased rollback of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day supply cut agreed in 2023.
At earlier meetings, the group had kept its October and November targets unchanged.
OPEC+ still has another layer of production cuts, totalling about 2 million barrels per day. Those cuts cover most members and remain in place through the end of 2026.
Before setting 2027 production baselines, the group must complete a review of members’ production capacity. The review will help determine future quotas and guide plans to unwind the remaining cuts.
The group had planned to complete the assessment during the fourth quarter. However, the Iran war has disrupted capacity expansion projects across the Middle East.
The Electricity Hub reported in October that the disruption had made estimates of future production potential less certain. Sources now expect the review to finish by mid-November.