- Pakistan could reduce electricity-related CO₂ emissions by 63.40% between 2025 and 2035 through a low-carbon electricity pathway, according to a study published in Frontiers in Sustainable Energy Policy.
- Researchers recommend expanding renewable energy, improving hydropower infrastructure and attracting private investment to reduce fossil fuel dependence and strengthen energy security.
Pakistan could cut carbon dioxide emissions from its electricity sector by 63.40% between 2025 and 2035 by adopting a low-carbon electricity pathway, according to a modelling study published in Frontiers in Sustainable Energy Policy.
Muhammad Yousaf Raza of Shandong Technology and Business University, Boqiang Lin of Xiamen University and Qasim Javed of the University of the Punjab conducted the research. They combined the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method with the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) model to assess historical electricity trends and project future emissions.
Rising Emissions and Energy Security Concerns
Pakistan’s electricity sector emitted 155.55 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO₂) in 2024. Oil accounted for 65 MtCO₂, coal contributed 41.9 MtCO₂, and natural gas generated 48.75 MtCO₂.
The study noted that Pakistan imported approximately 88.87% of its fossil fuels from the Gulf region. This dependence exposes the country to volatile international energy prices and increases pressure on its import bill.
The researchers found that Pakistan’s electricity mix has begun to diversify. According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2023–2024, hydropower accounted for 25.4% of electricity generation, nuclear power contributed 8.4%, renewables supplied 6.8%, and thermal sources accounted for 59.4%.
The study also recorded substantial growth in low-carbon electricity generation between 1985 and 2024, with the strongest gains occurring from 2020 to 2024. The researchers linked much of this progress to changes in the electricity mix and power projects under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Renewable Energy Could Drive Emissions Cuts
The researchers used the LEAP model to assess three future scenarios: business as usual, low demand and high demand. Their projections considered hydropower, nuclear energy, renewable sources and thermal generation.
The model projects continued growth in electricity consumption through 2035. However, it forecasts declining thermal generation as low-carbon sources increasingly replace fossil-fuel electricity.
Renewable electricity from solar, wind and biomass grew by 7.62% during the historical period examined. The study projects average annual growth of 0.75% for renewables through 2035. Nuclear electricity demand is also projected to grow, while hydropower faces constraints from rainfall variability and water security concerns.
Under the study’s low-demand pathway, electricity-related emissions could fall by 6.45% annually between 2013 and 2035, even as electricity output grows by an average of 4.34% per year. The researchers also modelled a maximum low-carbon electricity scenario that could deliver a 68.551% emissions reduction by 2035. The study’s headline projection of 63.40% reflects its central assumptions.
Investment and Policy Recommendations
The researchers recommended sustained investment in renewable energy technologies and the reconstruction of dams to improve hydropower efficiency.
They noted that authorities were considering approximately 250 engineering structures, including dams, ponds, spillways and drainage systems, to improve electricity performance.
Pakistan has also set a target to reduce carbon emissions by 50% by 2030. The government has committed to adding about 6,000 megawatts of photovoltaic solar capacity to reduce pollution from electricity generation.
Meanwhile, the Private Power Infrastructure Board is facilitating 24 power generation projects, including 22 renewable energy projects. The study identified this pipeline as a sign of growing support for private-sector investment in clean electricity.
Decarbonisation and Energy Independence
The researchers argued that reducing emissions could also strengthen Pakistan’s energy security. Replacing fossil-fuel electricity with hydropower, nuclear energy, wind, biofuels and solar power could reduce dependence on imported fuels while supporting domestic electricity supply.
The study acknowledged limitations, including a lack of data on low-carbon electricity costs and sector-specific expenses. The authors recommended further research using machine learning to forecast renewable energy output, electricity demand and costs, while accounting for factors such as population, income and technology.
The researchers concluded that sustained investment and effective emissions policies could allow Pakistan to expand electricity generation while substantially reducing its carbon footprint by 2035.