- Nigeria supplies only 37 per cent of its diesel demand locally, leaving imports to cover the deficit.
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Indian refiners now dominate West Africa’s diesel market due to pricing flexibility and shifts in global trade.
Nigeria’s diesel imports from India continue to define West Africa’s refined fuel trade, with new data confirming that Nigeria accounts for 63 per cent of the region’s diesel inflows from India. This pattern persists despite repeated policy promises to expand domestic refining capacity, leaving the region heavily exposed to external supply shocks and shifting global trade dynamics.
According to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, domestic diesel output remains constrained. Currently, Nigeria produces about 6.1 million litres of diesel daily, while national demand averages roughly 17 million litres each day. As a result, imports bridge a broad and persistent supply gap, making Nigeria’s diesel imports from India dominant in the regional market structure.
Dangote Refinery provides the bulk of the local supply at 5.783 million litres per day. In comparison, Waltersmith contributes 0.051 million litres daily, while Edo Refinery supplies about 0.052 million litres each day. Aradel Refinery adds close to 0.289 million litres daily. Altogether, domestic production meets only 37 per cent of national diesel demand, reinforcing Nigeria’s dependence on imported volumes.
Data from S&P Global Commodity at Sea shows that Indian shipments have risen sharply since 2022. Initially, volumes fluctuated due to post-pandemic uncertainty and foreign exchange shortages. From mid-2023, however, imports stabilised at structurally higher levels, with regular monthly spikes above 400,000 tonnes becoming common. This shift reflected a more substantial reliance on Indian refiners, supported by competitive pricing and scale.
By late 2025, shipments accelerated dramatically across West Africa, peaking near 800,000 metric tonnes by early 2026. This surge mirrored rising consumption and worsening stress on the energy system. Chronic electricity shortages entrenched diesel-powered generation across the region, while population growth and industrial expansion sustained demand growth.
Nigeria’s position remains especially striking. Although new refineries commenced operations, diesel remains fully deregulated. Therefore, import dependence continues, unlike the petrol market. NMDPRA supply data for 2025 reinforces this imbalance, showing imports consistently acting as the swing factor throughout the year.
In March 2025, total diesel supply peaked at 21.1 million litres daily, with imports accounting for 16.7 million litres. Conversely, domestic output fell sharply to just 4.4 million litres. Although local refineries stabilised supply mid-year, imports retained dominance, with another import-driven rebound occurring in October before easing in December.
Global trade disruptions further reinforce India’s growing role. European sanctions redirected Russian-linked products away from EU markets, prompting Indian gasoil to seek alternative destinations. African markets absorbed these displaced volumes rapidly, causing diesel cargoes to accumulate off the West African coast and deepening India’s influence over the regional diesel trade.