- China will generate half of its electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030 while maintaining high coal production to strengthen energy security.
- The country plans to expand renewable energy rapidly, but will continue using coal for electricity generation and chemical production.
China has reaffirmed its commitment to expanding renewable energy while maintaining coal as a strategic pillar of its energy system under its latest five-year energy plan.
The plan aims to generate 50 per cent of the country’s electricity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030, up from the 42.3 per cent target set for 2025.
To achieve this goal, China will increase wind and solar power to more than 50 per cent of its installed electricity generation capacity, reaching about 2,700 gigawatts by 2030.
The country had already increased wind and solar capacity to 47 per cent of installed generation capacity by the end of last year.
Recent renewable energy deployment has consistently exceeded official targets, suggesting China could surpass the new capacity objective ahead of schedule.
Despite the rapid expansion of clean energy, China will continue to rely heavily on coal to strengthen energy security and reduce dependence on imported fuels such as crude oil and liquefied natural gas.
Coal will remain central to electricity generation while also supplying feedstock for chemical and synthetic fuel production.
China produced 1.98 billion tonnes of coal during the first five months of 2026, representing a slight decline of 0.3 per cent from the same period last year.
Authorities attributed the temporary decline to intensified mine safety inspections following a fatal accident at a coal mine in Shanxi Province in May.
Coal production could recover during the second half of the year, placing annual output close to the record 4.823 billion tonnes produced in 2025. China has nearly tripled coal production since 2000, when mines produced approximately 1.38 billion tonnes.
Although the government reiterated that coal consumption will peak before 2030, the latest energy plan does not specify the level at which consumption will peak. China is also expanding the use of coal as a feedstock for chemicals and liquid fuels.
Coal consumption for chemical production has increased from about 20 million tonnes in 2005 to an estimated 320–380 million tonnes in 2026. Manufacturers primarily convert coal into methanol, while also producing ammonia, olefins and other industrial chemicals.
The expansion of coal-based chemical production increases carbon emissions because coal generates significantly higher emissions than crude oil during chemical manufacturing. The sector already accounts for an estimated five to seven per cent of China’s total greenhouse gas emissions.
Meanwhile, China is reducing its dependence on imported crude oil as electric vehicles continue to replace internal combustion engine vehicles across the transport sector.
China imported a record 11.6 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2025.
However, crude oil imports declined sharply in 2026 after refiners reduced purchases in response to higher international oil prices following geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East.
Average crude imports fell to 10.56 million barrels per day during the first five months of 2026, while May imports dropped to an eight-year low of 7.79 million barrels per day.
Refiners relied more heavily on existing inventories instead of purchasing expensive crude cargoes.
Lower crude oil imports also reduce the availability of naphtha, an essential feedstock for petrochemical production.
As naphtha supplies tighten, China is expected to increase coal-based chemical production to meet growing demand for plastics and other industrial materials that support its manufacturing sector.
The latest energy plan highlights China’s strategy of combining rapid renewable energy expansion with continued coal development to strengthen energy security, support industrial growth and reduce reliance on imported energy.