- The IEA projects global renewable power capacity will increase by almost 4,800GW between 2026 and 2031, representing nearly 60 per cent growth over the previous six-year period.
- Africa, India, Southeast Asia and the Middle East are expected to drive faster deployment as countries prioritise energy security and reduce dependence on imported fuels.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that global renewable power capacity will expand by almost 4,800 gigawatts (GW) between 2026 and 2031, with Africa and Asia emerging as major growth markets. The agency disclosed this in its latest Renewables 2026 report, which forecasts nearly 60 per cent more capacity additions than the previous six-year period.
The projection reflects stronger government support and growing concerns about energy security amid disruptions to global energy markets. The report identified Africa, India, Southeast Asia and the Middle East as regions expected to accelerate renewable energy deployment.
Solar Power to Lead Global Expansion
Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is expected to account for more than three-quarters of global renewable capacity additions through 2031.
Onshore wind will contribute the second-largest share of the projected expansion. The IEA also expects emerging and developing economies outside China to match advanced economies in renewable capacity additions for the first time during the forecast period. China will remain the largest contributor to global renewable capacity growth. However, its share is expected to decline from more than 60 per cent in 2025 to an average of 53 per cent between 2026 and 2031.
India is also emerging as the world’s second-largest renewable energy growth market. Its total renewable capacity is expected to more than double by 2031.
Africa and Emerging Markets Accelerate Deployment
Renewable capacity additions across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa are expected to almost triple compared with the previous six-year period.
The expansion will include large utility-scale projects and smaller installations by households and businesses. The report noted that consumers are increasingly adopting rooftop solar systems to reduce electricity costs and address unreliable power supplies. These small-scale installations have already improved electricity services for approximately 70 million households worldwide.
Renewable Energy Expands Into Transport
The IEA projects renewable energy consumption in the transport sector will increase by more than 60 per cent by 2031. Renewables are expected to meet approximately six per cent of global transport energy demand by that year. Electric vehicles powered by renewable electricity will account for about 45 per cent of the increase, while biofuels will make the second-largest contribution.
The agency also revised its biofuel forecast upward by 40 per cent compared with its previous report, reflecting increased government support and fuel-blending requirements.
Energy Security Becomes a Major Growth Driver
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said energy security has become a stronger driver of renewable energy deployment than environmental concerns alone. He explained that countries increasingly view renewable energy as a way to reduce exposure to imported fuels and strengthen domestic energy security.
Renewables currently account for approximately one-third of global electricity generation. The IEA expects their share to approach half within the next five years.
However, the agency warned that electricity grids must expand alongside renewable capacity. Advanced-stage renewable energy and storage projects awaiting grid connections increased by 60 per cent over the past year to approximately 3,000GW.
The IEA identified battery storage as an important solution for improving electricity system flexibility and integrating more renewable energy.