- China’s share of global renewable power capacity growth is expected to fall from more than 60 per cent in 2025 to an average of 53 per cent between 2026 and 2031.
- Emerging economies outside China are expected to match advanced markets in renewable capacity additions for the first time.
China’s dominance in global renewable energy expansion is expected to ease over the next five years as emerging economies accelerate investment in clean power, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The agency’s Renewables 2026 report projects that China’s share of global renewable power capacity growth will decline from more than 60 per cent in 2025 to an average of 53 per cent between 2026 and 2031. The shift reflects stronger policy support and growing energy security concerns across India, Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East.
Emerging Economies Close the Renewable Energy Gap
The IEA expects emerging and developing economies outside China to match advanced economies in renewable power capacity additions for the first time during the forecast period.
India is expected to become the world’s second-largest renewable energy growth market, with its total renewable capacity projected to more than double by 2031. Renewable capacity additions across Southeast Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, and sub-Saharan Africa are also expected to almost triple compared with the previous six-year period.
The agency forecasts that global renewable power capacity will increase by almost 4,800 gigawatts between 2026 and 2031, representing nearly 60 per cent more growth than the previous six-year period.
Solar Power Leads Capacity Expansion
Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is expected to account for more than three-quarters of global renewable capacity additions through 2031. Onshore wind will contribute the second-largest share. The report also identified India as an increasingly important alternative source of solar manufacturing.
Its share of global solar PV module manufacturing is expected to almost double to 17 per cent over the next five years.
Grid Connections Emerge as a Major Challenge
Despite the projected growth, the IEA warned that electricity grid infrastructure must expand to accommodate new renewable energy projects. Advanced-stage renewable energy and storage projects awaiting grid connections worldwide increased by 60 per cent over the past year to approximately 3,000GW.
This figure represents four times the wind and solar PV capacity connected to electricity grids during the previous year. The agency stressed that countries must ensure grid investment keeps pace with renewable energy deployment.
It also identified battery storage as an important solution for improving electricity system flexibility and supporting the integration of variable renewable energy. The IEA said stronger investment in grids and storage would help ensure renewable energy expansion delivers more secure, affordable and reliable electricity supplies.